Keywords

Central Asia, New Great Game, Expected Utility Model, Expected Utility, Public Policy Informatics, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Conflict Studies, Caspian, Game Theory, Military Studies, Geopolitics, Realism, Balance of Power

Abstract

The New Great Game is a geopolitical competition between regional stakeholders over energy resources in Central Asia. The author seeks to use the expected utility voting model based on Black's median voter theorem for forecasting the New Great Game in Central Asia. To judge the external validity of the voting model, the author uses data from the Correlates of War project data set, to formulate three distinct models based only on the numbers in 1992 and 1993. Capabilities and alliance data were used to develop balance of power positions and compare the outcome of 100 simulations to the actual outcome in 2000 based on Correlates of War project data. This allows us to judge whether the emergence of Russia's weak advantage as well as the continuation of the competition in the New Great Game as of 2000 could have been predicted based on what was known in 1992 and 1993. By using only one year's data to forecast the New Great Game, we are able to eliminate historical and researcher bias and judge the applicability of the model in global policy and strategic analysis.

Notes

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Graduation Date

2009

Advisor

Wan, Thomas

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

College

College of Health and Public Affairs

Degree Program

Public Affairs

Format

application/pdf

Identifier

CFE0002861

URL

http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/CFE0002861

Language

English

Release Date

February 2010

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Access Status

Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access)

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