Abstract

Urbanization has become a global trend under the impact of population growth, socio-economic development, and globalization. However, the interactions between climate change and urban growth in the context of economic geography are unclear due to missing links in between the recent planning megacities. This study aims to conduct a multi-temporal change analysis of land use and land cover in New York City, City of London, and Beijing using a cellular automata-based Markov chain model collaborating with fuzzy set theory and multi-criteria evaluation to predict the city's future land use changes for 2030 and 2050 under the background of climate change. To determine future natural forcing impacts on land use in these megacities, the study highlighted the need for integrating spatiotemporal modeling analyses, such as Statistical Downscale Modeling (SDSM) driven by climate change, and geospatial intelligence techniques, such as remote sensing and geographical information system, in support of urban growth assessment. These SDSM findings along with current land use policies and socio-economic impact were included as either factors or constraints in a cellular automata-based Markov Chain model to simulate and predict land use changes in megacities for 2030 and 2050. Urban expansion is expected in these megacities given the assumption of stationarity in urban growth process, although climate change impacts the land use changes and management. More land use protection should be addressed in order to alleviate the impact of climate change.

Graduation Date

2017

Semester

Summer

Advisor

Chang, Ni-bin

Degree

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

College of Engineering and Computer Science

Department

Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering

Degree Program

Environmental Engineering; Environmental Engineering Sciences

Format

application/pdf

Identifier

CFE0006761

URL

http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/CFE0006761

Language

English

Release Date

August 2017

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Access Status

Masters Thesis (Open Access)

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