Title
Modeling Strategies to Increase Population Immunity and Prevent Poliovirus Transmission in 2 High-Risk Areas in Northern India
Abbreviated Journal Title
J. Infect. Dis.
Keywords
polio; eradication; population immunity; OPV; IPV; POLICY OPTIONS; VACCINE; ERADICATION; POLIOMYELITIS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; EVOLUTION; INSIGHTS; ENDGAME; Immunology; Infectious Diseases; Microbiology
Abstract
Background. India presented many challenges to the global effort to eliminate the transmission of wild polioviruses (WPVs) and poliomyelitis, with the last case of WPV type 2 in the world reported in northern India in 1999 and WPV types 1 and 3 circulating until early 2011. Methods.aEuro integral We used a differential equation-based model to characterize the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and various opportunities to increase and maintain high population immunity to poliovirus transmission for 2 high-risk areas in northern India. We explored options that India probably considered before 2011, to demonstrate the impact of strategies to accelerate WPV elimination and sustain high population immunity. We also characterized the impact of current and potential future vaccination strategies and explored the potential trade-offs associated with the various strategies. Results.aEuro integral National immunization policy choices impact population immunity, which leads to different numbers of expected paralytic cases and risks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks. Assuming that India maintains high vaccination intensity everywhere, we do not anticipate issues with outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 infection following globally coordinated cessation of type 2-containting oral poliovirus vaccine use. We find a relatively modest potential role for inactivated poliovirus vaccine. Conclusions.aEuro integral National policy makers should consider the impacts of their vaccine choices on population immunity to poliovirus transmission.
Journal Title
Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume
210
Publication Date
1-1-2014
Document Type
Article
Language
English
First Page
S398
Last Page
S411
WOS Identifier
ISSN
0022-1899
Recommended Citation
"Modeling Strategies to Increase Population Immunity and Prevent Poliovirus Transmission in 2 High-Risk Areas in Northern India" (2014). Faculty Bibliography 2010s. 5543.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/facultybib2010/5543
Comments
Authors: contact us about adding a copy of your work at STARS@ucf.edu