Title

Forecasting Local Business Activity From Aggregate Indicators

Comments

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Abbreviated Journal Title

Am. Zool.

Keywords

Environmental Studies; Geography

Abstract

A regional forecasting technique is developed which combines national and local indicators to provide forecasts of local business activity. A regional business index is first developed to provide a time series from which the historical pattern of local business activity may be evaluated. The relationship between this time series and a similarly constructed national indicator series are first examined with cross-spectral analysis. The information from this analysis is used to guide the formulation of a transfer function time series model. Out-of-sample forecasts are then generated with the transfer model and a univariate ARMIA model. A comparison of these two forecasts to the actual regional index reveals that the transfer model provides a superior forecast.

Journal Title

American Zoologist

Volume

22

Issue/Number

1

Publication Date

1-1-1988

Document Type

Article

Language

English

First Page

63

Last Page

74

WOS Identifier

WOS:A1988M237200005

ISSN

0570-1864

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