An Investigation of the Interpretation of Uncertainty Information Displays by Decision Makers
This research study examines the use of uncertainty information in decision making. Specifically, user accuracy and efficiency are examined for three uncertainty information formats: probability density, cumulative distribution, and selected moments displays. This study also examines whether the nature of the task (symbolic versus spatial), the characteristic of the data (skew), and the characteristics of the decision maker (cognitive ability and experience) affect accuracy and efficiency. The relationships are tested by a regression model. Over 180 professionals and students participated in the experiment. The results suggest that users are more accurate and efficient when interpreting selected moments displays for symbolic tasks. Though no evidence is found to suggest a difference in accuracy between probability density and selected moments for spatial tasks, the results indicate that users of probability density presentations are more efficient. Further results provide limited evidence that users are less accurate when interpreting skewed information. In addition, results indicate that professionals with higher GEFT scores are more accurate but less efficient than individuals with lower scores. Finally, professionals are more accurate but less efficient than students for all tasks.
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Bandy, D. Dale
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)
College of Business Administration
Length of Campus-only Access
Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access)
Business Administration -- Dissertations, Academic; Dissertations, Academic -- Business Administration
Mahoney, Lois S., "An Investigation of the Interpretation of Uncertainty Information Displays by Decision Makers" (1997). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 2736.