Longwave Emission Trends Over Africa And Implications For Atlantic Hurricanes

Keywords

African OLR trend; anthropogenic forcing; Atlantic hurricanes

Abstract

The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.

Publication Date

9-16-2017

Publication Title

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

44

Issue

17

Number of Pages

9075-9083

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073869

Socpus ID

85028974141 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85028974141

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