Prediction of Electric Vehicle Penetration
Brooker, R. Paul
The object of this report is to present the current market status of plug-in-electric vehicles (PEVs) and to predict their future penetration within the world and U.S. markets. The sales values for 2016 show a strong year of PEV sales both in the world and the U.S. China leads in yearly sales at 316,800 (a 53% increase for 2016 from 2015) followed by Western Europe at 209,300 vehicles sold. The U.S. is third at 159,600. These three regions comprise 91% of the global sales market. The world total of PEV sales for 2016 is estimated to be 756,000 up from 566,000 in 2015. The data shows that the overall world has a 34% growth rate for the past year. The world now has over two million PEVs on the road. PEVs in the world market are rapidly growing due to the various country policies and to the development of lithium-ion batteries from both a technological and manufacturing standpoint.Within the U.S., the PEV sales results for 2016 show that 159,600 vehicles were sold as compared to 114,000 vehicles in 2015 for a yearly growth rate of 40%. On a state basis, California is the largest market with sales of 75,165 PEVs or 48% of the US sales. The total cumulative number of PEVs sold in the U.S. over the seven year lifetime is now at more than 560,000 vehicles.The project also evaluated the types of barriers to PEV usage and the actions, incentives and research to overcome the barriers. These major barriers are related to cost, resale, infrastructure and range. Results show that the cost of PEVs are higher than conventional gasoline vehicles, and the used PEV market is only just starting to appear. Range is another barrier to EV adoption, with typical PEV ranges less than 100 miles. Related to range, the recharging time of EVs is significantly longer than gasoline, and charging stations are not as common as gasoline stations. The result of these barriers is to reduce PEV acceptance among the typical consumer.
Florida Solar Energy Center and Block, David, "Prediction of Electric Vehicle Penetration" (2017). FSEC Energy Research Center®. 74.