Keywords

power outage, restoration time, Generalized Accelerated Failure Time model, hurricanes, investor-owned power companies, median income.

Abstract

Major disasters such as wildfire, tornado, hurricane, tropical storm, flooding cause disruptions in infrastructure systems such as power outage, disruption to water supply system, wastewater management, telecommunication failures, and transportation facilities. Disruptions in electricity infrastructures have negative impacts on sectors throughout a region, including education, medical services, financial, and recreation sectors. In this study, we introduce a novel approach to investigate the factors which can be associated with longer restoration time of power service after a hurricane. Considering restoration time as the dependent variable and utilizing a comprehensive set of county-level data, we have estimated a Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model that accounts for spatial dependence among observations for time to event data. The model fit improved by 12% after considering the effects of spatial correlation in time to event data. Using GAFT model and Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida as a case study, we examined: (1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates among different types of power companies: investor-owned power companies, rural and municipal cooperatives; (2) the relationship between the duration of power outage and power system variables; (3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic attributes. The findings of this study indicate that counties with a higher percentage of customers served by investor-owned electric companies and lower median household income, faced power outage for a longer time. This paper identifies the key factors to predict restoration time of hurricane-induced power outages, allowing disaster management agencies to adopt strategies required for restoration process.

Completion Date

2023

Semester

Fall

Committee Chair

Hasan, Samiul

Degree

Master of Science in Civil Engineering (M.S.C.E.)

College

College of Engineering and Computer Science

Department

Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering

Format

application/pdf

Identifier

DP0028047

URL

https://purls.library.ucf.edu/go/DP0028047

Language

English

Release Date

December 2023

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Access Status

Masters Thesis (Open Access)

Campus Location

Orlando (Main) Campus

Download

Share

COinS