Most safety performance analysis employs cross-sectional and time-series datasets, posing an important challenge to safety performance and crash modification analysis. The traditional safety model analysis paradigm relying on observed data only allows relative comparisons between analysis methods and is unable to establish how well the methods mimic the true underlying crash generation process. Assumptions are made about the data, but whether the assumptions truly characterize the safety data generation in the real world remains unknown. To address this issue, this thesis proposes the generation of realistic artificial data (RAD). In developing a prototype RAD generator for crash data, we mimic the process of crash occurrence, simulating daily traffic patterns and evaluating each trip for crash risk. For each crash, details such as crash location, crash type, and crash severity are also generated. As part of the artificial data generation, this thesis also proposes a framework for employing naturalistic driving study (NDS) data to understand and predict crash risk at a disaggregate trip level. This framework proposes a case-control study design for understanding trip level crash risk. The study also conducts a comparison of different case to control ratios and finds the model parameters estimated with these control ratios are reasonably similar. A multi-level random parameters binary logit model was estimated where multiple forms of unobserved variables were tested. This model was calibrated by modifying the constant parameter to generate a population conforming risk model, and then tested on a hold-out sample of data records. This thesis contributes to safety research through the development of a prototype RAD generator for traffic crash data, which will lead to new information about the underlying causes of crashes and ways to make roadways safer.
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Master of Science (M.S.)
College of Engineering and Computer Science
Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering
Civil Engineering; Smart Cities Track
Length of Campus-only Access
Masters Thesis (Open Access)
Hoover, Lauren, "Modeling of Crash Risk for Realistic Artificial Data Generation: Application to Naturalistic Driving Study Data" (2021). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2020-. 1331.