Abstract

This research investigates the impact of human activity and mobility (HAM) in the spreading dynamics of an epidemic. Specifically, it explores the interconnections between HAM and its effect on the early spread of the COVID-19 virus. During the early stages of the pandemic, effective reproduction numbers exhibited a high correlation with human mobility patterns, leading to a hypothesis that the HAM system can be studied as a coupled system with disease spread dynamics. This study applies the generalized Koopman framework with control inputs to determine the nonlinear disease spread dynamics and the input-output characteristics as a locally linear controlled dynamical system. The approach solely relies on the snapshots of spatiotemporal data and does not require any knowledge of the system's physical laws. We exploit the Koopman operator framework by utilizing the Hankel Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control (HDMDc) algorithm to obtain a linear disease spread model incorporating human mobility as a control input. The study demonstrated that the proposed methodology could capture the impact of local mobility on the early dynamics of the ongoing global pandemic. The obtained locally linear model can accurately forecast the number of new infections for various prediction windows ranging from two to four weeks. The study corroborates a leader-follower relationship between mobility and disease spread dynamics. In addition, the effect of delay embedding in the HDMDc algorithm is also investigated and reported. A case study was performed using COVID infection data from Florida, US, and HAM data extracted from \textit{Google community mobility data report.

Notes

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Graduation Date

2021

Semester

Fall

Advisor

Agarwal, Shaurya

Degree

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

College of Engineering and Computer Science

Department

Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering

Degree Program

Civil Engineering; Smart Cities Track

Format

application/pdf

Identifier

CFE0008876; DP0026155

URL

https://purls.library.ucf.edu/go/DP0026155

Language

English

Release Date

December 2021

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Access Status

Masters Thesis (Open Access)

Restricted to the UCF community until December 2021; it will then be open access.

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