Title

The relation between fit and prediction for alternative forms of learning curves and relearning curves

Authors

Authors

C. D. Bailey;E. V. McIntyre

Comments

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Abbreviated Journal Title

IIE Trans.

Keywords

R2; Engineering, Industrial; Operations Research & Management Science

Abstract

Learning-curve models fitted to initial data are used to predict subsequent performance; however, the model that fits the initial data best may not predict best in future periods - a paradox documented in applications of other prediction models. Little evidence exists about the magnitude of the problem in the domain of learning curves and relearning curves. Using laboratory data, the authors examine the predictive ability of alternative models, examine the strength of the relation between goodness-of-fit and predictive ability, and test whether this relation is the same for both learning curves and relearning curves. Although the correlations between measures of goodness-of-fit and predictive ability are not high, one curve (a log-log-linear model recently introduced to the literature) tended to dominate the rankings on the basis of predictive ability for both learning curves and relearning curves. This curve also tended to provide the best fit in the estimation period as a relearning curve, and the second-best fit as a learning curve.

Journal Title

Iie Transactions

Volume

29

Issue/Number

6

Publication Date

1-1-1997

Document Type

Article

Language

English

First Page

487

Last Page

495

WOS Identifier

WOS:A1997WW52100005

ISSN

0740-817X

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