Efficient multinomial selection in simulation

    Authors

    J. O. Miller; B. L. Nelson;C. H. Reilly

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Nav. Res. Logist.

    Keywords

    multinomial; ranking and selection; simulation; Operations Research & Management Science

    Abstract

    Consider a simulation experiment consisting of upsilon independent vector replications across k systems, where in any given replication one system is selected as the best performer (i.e., it wins). Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning in any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. The classical multinomial selection procedure of Bechhofer, Elmaghraby, and Morse (Procedure BEM) prescribes a minimum number of replications, denoted as upsilon*, so that the probability of correctly selecting the true best system (PCS) meets or exceeds a prespecified probability. Assuming that larger is better, Procedure BEM selects as best the system having the largest value of the performance measure in more replications than any other system. We use these same upsilon* replications across k systems to form (upsilon*)(k) pseudoreplications that contain one observation from each system, and develop Procedure AVC ((A) under bar ll (V) under bar ector (C) under bar omparisons) to achieve a higher PCS than with Procedure BEM. For specific small-sample cases and via a large-sample approximation we show that the PCS with Procedure AVC exceeds the PCS with Procedure BEM. We also show that with Procedure AVC we achieve a given PCS with a smaller upsilon than the upsilon* required with Procedure BEM. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 459-482, 1998.

    Journal Title

    Naval Research Logistics

    Volume

    45

    Issue/Number

    5

    Publication Date

    1-1-1998

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    459

    Last Page

    482

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000075154000002

    ISSN

    0894-069X

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