Assessing hurricane effects. Part 2. Uncertainty analysis

    Authors

    R. L. Iman; M. E. Johnson;T. A. Schroeder

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.

    Keywords

    sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; Latin hypercube sampling; damage function; loss cost; hurricane; Rankine-vortex; Saffir-Simpson; scale; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES; COMPUTER-MODELS; Engineering, Industrial; Operations Research & Management Science

    Abstract

    The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) performs an annual review of computer models that have been submitted by vendors for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. As part of the review process and to comply with the Sunshine Law, the FCHLPM employs a Professional Team to perform on-site (confidential) audits of these models. Members of the Professional Team represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics and wind and structural engineering. The audit includes an assessment of modeler's compliance to a set of standards and modules established by the FCHLPM. One part of these standards requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses (UA/SA) to be conducted on the proprietary model. At the completion of the audit, the professional team provides a written report to the FCHLPM, who ultimately judges compliance by a vendor to the standards. To influence future such analyses, the Professional Team conducted a demonstration UA/SA for the FCHLPM using a Rankine-vortex hurricane wind field model and surrogate damage function. This is the second of a two-part article presenting the results of those analyses. Part I presented sensitivity analysis results for wind speed and loss cost while the current paper presents the corresponding uncertainty analysis results. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Journal Title

    Reliability Engineering & System Safety

    Volume

    78

    Issue/Number

    2

    Publication Date

    1-1-2002

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    147

    Last Page

    155

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000178956200007

    ISSN

    0951-8320

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