Sensitivity analysis for computer model projections of hurricane losses

    Authors

    R. L. Iman; M. E. Johnson;C. C. Watson

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Risk Anal.

    Keywords

    damage function; Holland wind field model; hurricane loss; Latin; hypercube sampling; Saffir-Simpson scale; sensitivity analysis; standardized regression coefficients; uncertainty analysis; INPUT VARIABLES; RANK CORRELATION; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Mathematics, ; Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

    Abstract

    Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is fraught with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from $2 billion to $3 billion in losses late on the 12th to a peak of $50 billion for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm struck the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor and moved across the densely populated central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates in the $28 to $31 billion range, and final estimates converging at $15 billion as the actual intensity at landfall became apparent. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has a great appreciation for the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM contracts with a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a sophisticated computer model based on the Holland wind field. Sensitivity analyses presented in this article utilize standardized regression coefficients to quantify the contribution of the computer input variables to the magnitude of the wind speed.

    Journal Title

    Risk Analysis

    Volume

    25

    Issue/Number

    5

    Publication Date

    1-1-2005

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    1277

    Last Page

    1297

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000232867400016

    ISSN

    0272-4332

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