Nonlinear regression and ARTMA models for precipitation chemistry in East Central Florida from 1978 to 1997

    Authors

    D. M. Nickerson;B. C. Madsen

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Environ. Pollut.

    Keywords

    acid rain; wet deposition; trends; nonlinear models; ARIMA models; LONG-TERM TRENDS; CHEMICAL-COMPOSITION; UNITED-STATES; TIME-SERIES; ACID-RAIN; JAPAN; Environmental Sciences

    Abstract

    Continuous monitoring of precipitation in East Central Florida has occurred since 1978 at a sampling site located on the University of Central Florida (UCF) campus. Monthly volume-weighted average (VWA) concentration for several major analytes that are present in precipitation samples was calculated from samples collected daily. Monthly VWA concentration and wet deposition of H+, NH4+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NO3-, Cl- and SO42- were evaluated by a nonlinear regression (NLR) model that considered 10-year data (from 1978 to 1987) and 20-year data (from 1978 to 1997). Little change in the NLR parameter estimates was indicated among the 10-year and 20-year evaluations except for general decreases in the predicted trends from the 10-year to the 20-year fits. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with linear trend were considered as an alternative to the NLR models for these data. The NLR and ARIMA model forecasts for 1998 were compared to the actual 1998 data. For monthly VWA concentration values, the two models gave similar results. For the wet deposition values, the ARIMA models performed considerably better. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Journal Title

    Environmental Pollution

    Volume

    135

    Issue/Number

    3

    Publication Date

    1-1-2005

    Document Type

    Article; Proceedings Paper

    Language

    English

    First Page

    371

    Last Page

    379

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000227941400004

    ISSN

    0269-7491

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