Title
Trading with a stock chart heuristic
Abbreviated Journal Title
IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Paart A-Syst. Hum.
Keywords
efficient market hypothesis (EMH); expert systems; heuristics; knowledge; engineering; stock market forecasting; technical analysis; EFFICIENT CAPITAL-MARKETS; NEURAL NETWORKS; HERD BEHAVIOR; ASSET; MARKETS; PERFORMANCE; OVERREACTION; INFORMATION; STRATEGIES; KNOWLEDGE; MOMENTUM; Computer Science, Cybernetics; Computer Science, Theory & Methods
Abstract
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a cornerstone of financial economics. The EMH asserts that security prices fully reflect all available information and that the stock market prices securities at their fair values. Therefore, investors cannot consistently "beat the market" because stocks reside in perpetual equilibrium, making research efforts futile. This flies in the face of the conventional nonacademic wisdom that astute analysts can beat the market using technical or fundamental stock analysis. The purpose of this research is to partially assess whether technical analysts, who predict future stock prices by analyzing past stock prices, can consistently achieve a trading return that outperforms the stock market average return. This is tested using knowlege engineering experimentation with one price history pattern-the "bull Hag stock chart"-which signals technical analysts of a future stock market price increase. A recognizer for the stock chart pattern is built using a template-matching technique from pattern recognition. The recognizer and associated trading rules are then tested by simulating trading on over 35 years of daily closing price data for the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. The experiment is then replicated using the horizontal rotation or mirror image pattern of the "bull flag" (or "bear flag" stock chart) that signals a future stock market decrease. Results are systematic, statistically significant, and fail to confirm the null hypothesis based on a corollary to the EMH: that profit realized from trading determined by this heuristic method is no better than what would be realized from trading decisions based on random choice.
Journal Title
Ieee Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part a-Systems and Humans
Volume
38
Issue/Number
1
Publication Date
1-1-2008
Document Type
Article
Language
English
First Page
93
Last Page
104
WOS Identifier
ISSN
1083-4427
Recommended Citation
"Trading with a stock chart heuristic" (2008). Faculty Bibliography 2000s. 597.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/facultybib2000/597
Comments
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