Statistical aspects of forecasting and planning for hurricanes

    Authors

    R. L. Iman; M. E. Johnson;C. C. Watson

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Am. Stat.

    Keywords

    ensemble models; Latin hypercube sampling; meteorology; storm surge; tropical cyclone; typhoon; variability charts; COMPUTER-MODEL PROJECTIONS; TROPICAL CYCLONES; WIND; PREDICTION; LOSSES; Statistics & Probability

    Abstract

    Virtually every aspect of hurricane planning and forecasting involves (or should involve!) the science of statistics. The very active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons-in particular the devastating landfall of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast-as well as concerns that climate change is altering hurricane frequency and intensity, provide many examples of the use and misuse of statistics. Although the massive news media coverage indicated the interest and importance of these stories, from a scientific standpoint much of the "information" in these media reports was of dubious accuracy, especially where statistics were concerned. These examples indicate many opportunities to advance the state of the art of hurricane forecasting and planning through the intelligent applications of statistical analyses. This article considers several issues related to hurricane planning and forecasting, including a review and discussion of progress since 1985, when The American Statistician published some articles on the role of statistical analyses and hurricane forecasting.

    Journal Title

    American Statistician

    Volume

    60

    Issue/Number

    2

    Publication Date

    1-1-2006

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    105

    Last Page

    121

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000237196200001

    ISSN

    0003-1305

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