Title

Statistical aspects of forecasting and planning for hurricanes

Authors

Authors

R. L. Iman; M. E. Johnson;C. C. Watson

Comments

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Abbreviated Journal Title

Am. Stat.

Keywords

ensemble models; Latin hypercube sampling; meteorology; storm surge; tropical cyclone; typhoon; variability charts; COMPUTER-MODEL PROJECTIONS; TROPICAL CYCLONES; WIND; PREDICTION; LOSSES; Statistics & Probability

Abstract

Virtually every aspect of hurricane planning and forecasting involves (or should involve!) the science of statistics. The very active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons-in particular the devastating landfall of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast-as well as concerns that climate change is altering hurricane frequency and intensity, provide many examples of the use and misuse of statistics. Although the massive news media coverage indicated the interest and importance of these stories, from a scientific standpoint much of the "information" in these media reports was of dubious accuracy, especially where statistics were concerned. These examples indicate many opportunities to advance the state of the art of hurricane forecasting and planning through the intelligent applications of statistical analyses. This article considers several issues related to hurricane planning and forecasting, including a review and discussion of progress since 1985, when The American Statistician published some articles on the role of statistical analyses and hurricane forecasting.

Journal Title

American Statistician

Volume

60

Issue/Number

2

Publication Date

1-1-2006

Document Type

Article

Language

English

First Page

105

Last Page

121

WOS Identifier

WOS:000237196200001

ISSN

0003-1305

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