Title

Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA

Authors

Authors

O. Mikhail; C. J. Eberwein;J. Handa

Comments

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Abbreviated Journal Title

Appl. Econ.

Keywords

MOVING-AVERAGE MODELS; STATIONARY TIME-SERIES; REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; LONG-MEMORY; INFERENCE; TREND; Economics

Abstract

The degree of persistence in aggregate Canadian unemployment is estimated within a Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run. The evidence of persistence is stronger than previously reported by Koustas and Veloce (1996). This persistence cast a vital implication regarding disinflation policies, Based on the unemployment rate, these policies will prove very costly in terms of lost output and - if implemented - they considerably lengthen recessions.

Journal Title

Applied Economics

Volume

38

Issue/Number

15

Publication Date

1-1-2006

Document Type

Article

Language

English

First Page

1809

Last Page

1819

WOS Identifier

WOS:000240121100008

ISSN

0003-6846

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