Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA

    Authors

    O. Mikhail; C. J. Eberwein;J. Handa

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Appl. Econ.

    Keywords

    MOVING-AVERAGE MODELS; STATIONARY TIME-SERIES; REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; LONG-MEMORY; INFERENCE; TREND; Economics

    Abstract

    The degree of persistence in aggregate Canadian unemployment is estimated within a Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run. The evidence of persistence is stronger than previously reported by Koustas and Veloce (1996). This persistence cast a vital implication regarding disinflation policies, Based on the unemployment rate, these policies will prove very costly in terms of lost output and - if implemented - they considerably lengthen recessions.

    Journal Title

    Applied Economics

    Volume

    38

    Issue/Number

    15

    Publication Date

    1-1-2006

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    1809

    Last Page

    1819

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000240121100008

    ISSN

    0003-6846

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