Adapting California's water system to warm vs. dry climates

    Authors

    C. R. Connell-Buck; J. Medellin-Azuara; J. R. Lund;K. Madani

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Clim. Change

    Keywords

    WESTERN UNITED-STATES; CHANGE SCENARIOS; SNOWMELT RUNOFF; SUPPLY SYSTEM; MANAGEMENT; IMPACTS; TRENDS; PRECIPITATION; OPTIMIZATION; TEMPERATURE; Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

    Abstract

    This paper explores the independent and combined effects of changes in temperature and runoff volume on California's water supply and potential water management adaptations. Least-cost water supply system adaptation is explored for two climate scenarios: 1) warmer-drier conditions, and 2) warmer conditions without change in total runoff, using the CALVIN economic-engineering optimization model of California's intertied water supply system for 2050 water demands. The warm-dry hydrology was developed from downscaled effects of the GFDL CM2.1 (A2 emissions scenario) global climate model for a 30-year period centered at 2085. The warm-only scenario was developed from the warm-dry hydrology, preserving its seasonal runoff shift while maintaining mean annual flows from the historical hydrology. This separates the runoff volume and temperature effects of climate change on water availability and management adaptations. A warmer climate alone reduces water deliveries and increases costs, but much less than a warmer-drier climate, if the water supply system is well managed. Climate changes result in major changes in reservoir operations, cyclic storage of groundwater, and hydropower operations.

    Journal Title

    Climatic Change

    Volume

    109

    Publication Date

    1-1-2011

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    133

    Last Page

    149

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000298757300007

    ISSN

    0165-0009

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