Climate Change and Hydropower Planning in the Middle East: Implications for Iran's Karkheh Hydropower Systems

    Authors

    S. Jamali; A. Abrishamchi;K. Madani

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    J. Energy Eng.-ASCE

    Keywords

    Climate change; Hydropower; Operations; Simulation; Modeling; Adaptation; Karkheh River Basin; Iran; CHANGE IMPACTS; RIVER-BASIN; WATER-RESOURCES; CALIFORNIA; GENERATION; Energy & Fuels; Engineering, Civil

    Abstract

    Given the important role of hydropower in peak electricity management, Middle Eastern countries are actively pursuing development of more hydropower resources by construction of large dams. Nonetheless, climate change is expected to affect the future productivity of hydropower by influencing the hydrologic cycle and different climate variables in the region. Although reactive plans to minimize climate change impacts on hydropower production have been implemented in the developed world, the developing world can still benefit from proactive actions. Studies of climate change impacts before and during implementation of hydropower projects can result in timely responses and adaptation to climate change with a potential of considerable cost savings. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower systems in the Karkheh River Basin-the third largest river basin in Iran-in terms of potential for hydroelectricity generation. A simulation model is developed to examine how hydropower generation levels vary for different future climate change scenarios in this representative Middle Eastern basin. The obtained results suggest that the existing operation rules and design specifications, developed based on the historical climatic conditions, can lead to inefficient operations of the hydropower in the basin. Because of insignificant stream-flow reductions in the short term, hydropower production may not change considerably in the near future. However, a serious hydropower generation deficit is expected in the midterm and long-term horizons in the Karkheh River Basin. Therefore, adaptation to the future climate change conditions and revision of the operation rule curves and design specifications are essential to optimal hydropower operations in this basin. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

    Journal Title

    Journal of Energy Engineering

    Volume

    139

    Issue/Number

    3

    Publication Date

    1-1-2013

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    153

    Last Page

    160

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000330516600002

    ISSN

    0733-9402

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