Feasibility of Incorporating Reliability Analysis in Traffic Safety Investigation

    Authors

    R. J. Yu; Q. Shi;M. Abdel-Aty

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Transp. Res. Record

    Keywords

    CRASHES; Engineering, Civil; Transportation; Transportation Science & Technology

    Abstract

    The feasibility of using reliability analysis methods in traffic safety analyses is investigated. The reliability analysis approach, frequently used to evaluate the probability of failure of a specific structural system, has two main outcomes: the reliability index and the design points. Two approaches to using these two outcomes in traffic safety analyses are presented. Data from a mountainous freeway in Colorado are used. The reliability index is used to evaluate the hazardous freeway segments by incorporating the traffic flow parameters provided by radar detectors. The design points are employed to evaluate real-time crash occurrence risk at the disaggregate level with weather parameters. Finally, results of the reliability analysis approach are compared with the results of traditional methods. The reliability analysis method shows promising application in traffic safety studies. With the use of the reliability indexes, the three most hazardous freeway segments are identified. Moreover, with the design points, the accuracy rate of predicting crash occurrence is improved by 10.53% as compared with the logistic regression method.

    Journal Title

    Transportation Research Record

    Issue/Number

    2386

    Publication Date

    1-1-2013

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    35

    Last Page

    41

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000332594000005

    ISSN

    0361-1981

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