Title

Adaptation of surface water supply to climate change in central Iran

Authors

Authors

A. Gohari; A. Bozorgi; K. Madani; J. Elledge;R. Berndtsson

Comments

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Abbreviated Journal Title

J. Water Clim. Chang.

Keywords

Iran; optimization; reservoir operation; water resources management; water supply; Zayandeh-Rud; OPTIMAL RESERVOIR OPERATION; HYDROPOWER SYSTEMS; GENETIC ALGORITHM; CHANGE IMPACTS; FLOOD-CONTROL; OPTIMIZATION; PERFORMANCE; MODELS; GAME; IRRIGATION; Water Resources

Abstract

Optimal reservoir operation changes and adaptation strategies for the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin's surface water supply system are examined for a changing climate during the 2015-2044 period. On average, the monthly temperature in the basin is expected to increase by 0.46-0.76 degrees C and annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 14-38% with climate change, resulting in a reduction of the Zayandeh-Rud's peak stream flow and the amplitude of its seasonal range. Snowfall decrease in winter months will generally lead to an 8-43% reduction in annual stream flow under climate change. A reservoir operation model is developed and optimal reservoir operation strategies are identified for adaptation of the basin's surface water supply to climate change in the face of the increasing water demand. Results indicate that the reservoir drawdown season starts 2 months earlier under climate change. Smaller storage levels and greater water releases must occur to meet the increasing water demand. The optimized water release can provide sufficient water for non-agricultural water demand, but agriculture will experience more severe water shortage under a changing climate. Having the highest vulnerability, the agricultural sector should be the main focus of regional management plans to address the current water challenge and more severe water shortages under climate change.

Journal Title

Journal of Water and Climate Change

Volume

5

Issue/Number

3

Publication Date

1-1-2014

Document Type

Article

Language

English

First Page

391

Last Page

407

WOS Identifier

WOS:000343165500010

ISSN

2040-2244

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