Modeling Strategies to Increase Population Immunity and Prevent Poliovirus Transmission in 2 High-Risk Areas in Northern India

    Authors

    D. A. Kalkowska; R. J. D. Tebbens;K. M. Thompson

    Comments

    Authors: contact us about adding a copy of your work at STARS@ucf.edu

    Abbreviated Journal Title

    J. Infect. Dis.

    Keywords

    polio; eradication; population immunity; OPV; IPV; POLICY OPTIONS; VACCINE; ERADICATION; POLIOMYELITIS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; EVOLUTION; INSIGHTS; ENDGAME; Immunology; Infectious Diseases; Microbiology

    Abstract

    Background. India presented many challenges to the global effort to eliminate the transmission of wild polioviruses (WPVs) and poliomyelitis, with the last case of WPV type 2 in the world reported in northern India in 1999 and WPV types 1 and 3 circulating until early 2011. Methods.aEuro integral We used a differential equation-based model to characterize the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and various opportunities to increase and maintain high population immunity to poliovirus transmission for 2 high-risk areas in northern India. We explored options that India probably considered before 2011, to demonstrate the impact of strategies to accelerate WPV elimination and sustain high population immunity. We also characterized the impact of current and potential future vaccination strategies and explored the potential trade-offs associated with the various strategies. Results.aEuro integral National immunization policy choices impact population immunity, which leads to different numbers of expected paralytic cases and risks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks. Assuming that India maintains high vaccination intensity everywhere, we do not anticipate issues with outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 infection following globally coordinated cessation of type 2-containting oral poliovirus vaccine use. We find a relatively modest potential role for inactivated poliovirus vaccine. Conclusions.aEuro integral National policy makers should consider the impacts of their vaccine choices on population immunity to poliovirus transmission.

    Journal Title

    Journal of Infectious Diseases

    Volume

    210

    Publication Date

    1-1-2014

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    S398

    Last Page

    S411

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000344612400048

    ISSN

    0022-1899

    Share

    COinS