Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters

    Authors

    C. Jiang; L. H. Xiong; D. B. Wang; P. Liu; S. L. Guo;C. Y. Xu

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    J. Hydrol.

    Keywords

    Runoff change; Budyko-type equation; Time-varying parameter; Moving; window; Climate change; Human activities; LONG-TERM PERSISTENCE; WEI RIVER-BASIN; WATER-BALANCE; LAND-USE; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS; STREAMFLOW TRENDS; SEMIARID REGIONS; NORTHWEST CHINA; YANGTZE-RIVER; Engineering, Civil; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Water Resources

    Abstract

    The Budyko-type equations have begun to be widely adopted to separate the contributions of climate change and human activities to the variation of runoff over long-term periods by using the multi-year averages of hydrological variables. In this study, a two-step framework based on four single-parameter Budyko-type equations is proposed to separate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff. First, the relationship of the parameter w in each Budyko-type equation with climatic and human factors is built to reveal the time-variation process of w by using an 11-year moving window. Second, the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff are separated by using both the decomposition method and the sensitivity method. This separating framework is applied to analyze the variation of the runoff during 1960-2009 in the Weihe River. It is found that the parameter w in each Budyko-type equation is significantly related to both factors of climate and human activities. The results from both the decomposition method and the sensitivity method show that climate change is the main driving factor to the decline in runoff of the Weihe River, while human activities are another important factor. In general, climate change affects runoff not only by changing the hydrological inputs (precipitation and potential evaporation) but also by altering the watershed characteristics as represented by the parameter w; while the impacts of human activities on runoff are exerted mainly through the alteration of the watershed characteristics. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    Journal Title

    Journal of Hydrology

    Volume

    522

    Publication Date

    1-1-2015

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    326

    Last Page

    338

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000350920200028

    ISSN

    0022-1694

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