Abstract

The objective of this research concerns identifying whether or not there is a relationship between oil price increases in a given quarter and the likelihood of a recession in the subsequent quarter. The data used is gathered from the St. Louis Fed's Fred II, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Energy Information Administration to generate modified variables. These variables are tested using a qualitative dependent variable, recession, in a binary choice model. The findings validated the assumption that oil prices do have a correlation with recessions, and that the relationship is a direct one. Based on the model, an increase in the price of oil will positively affect the likelihood of a "recession" outcome versus the alternative, "no recession". It is anticipated that the results will inspire future research into the causes and effects of oil price surges, as well as the determinants of economic contractions in the future based on policy decisions and economic decision-making practices in the present.

Notes

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Thesis Completion

2011

Semester

Fall

Advisor

Hofler, Richard

Degree

Bachelor of Arts (B.A.)

College

College of Business Administration

Degree Program

Economics

Subjects

Business Administration -- Dissertations, Academic;Dissertations, Academic -- Business Administration

Format

PDF

Identifier

CFH0004088

Language

English

Access Status

Open Access

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Document Type

Honors in the Major Thesis

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Included in

Economics Commons

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