Title

Assessing Hurricane Effects. Part 1 - Sensitivity Analysis

Keywords

Damage function; Hurricane; Latin hypercube sampling; Loss cost; Rankine-vortex; Saffir-Simpson scale; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis

Abstract

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) performs an annual review of computer models that have been submitted by vendors for use in insurance rate filling in Florida. As part of the review process and to comply with the Sunshine Law, the FCHLPM employs a Professional Team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of these models. Members of the Professional Team represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics and wind and structural engineering. The audit includes an assessment of modeler's compliance to a set of standards and modules established by the FCHLPM. One part of these standards requires the conduct of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to the proprietary model. At the completion of the audit, the professional team provides a written report to the FCHLPM, who ultimately judges compliance by a vendor to the standards. To influence future such analyses, the Professional Team conducted a demonstration uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the FCHLPM using a Rankine-vortex hurricane wind field model and surrogate damage function. This is the first of a two-part article presenting the results of those analyses. Part 1 presents sensitivity analysis results for wind speed and loss cost, while Part 2 presents the corresponding uncertainty analysis results. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Publication Date

11-1-2002

Publication Title

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volume

78

Issue

2

Number of Pages

131-145

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(02)00133-3

Socpus ID

0036837933 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/0036837933

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