Title

Statistical Aspects Of Forecasting And Planning For Hurricanes

Keywords

Ensemble models; Latin hypercube sampling; Meteorology; Storm surge; Tropical cyclone; Typhoon; Variability charts

Abstract

Virtually every aspect of hurricane planning and forecasting involves (or should involve!) the science of statistics. The very active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons - in particular the devastating landfall of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast - as well as concerns that climate change is altering hurricane frequency and intensity, provide many examples of the use and misuse of statistics. Although the massive news media coverage indicated the interest and importance of these stories, from a scientific standpoint much of the "information" in these media reports was of dubious accuracy, especially where statistics were concerned. These examples indicate many opportunities to advance the state of the art of hurricane forecasting and planning through the intelligent applications of statistical analyses. This article considers several issues related to hurricane planning and forecasting, including a review and discussion of progress since 1985, when The American Statistician published some articles on the role of statistical analyses and hurricane forecasting. © 2006 American Statistical Association.

Publication Date

5-1-2006

Publication Title

American Statistician

Volume

60

Issue

2

Number of Pages

105-121

Document Type

Review

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1198/000313006X106019

Socpus ID

33744534285 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/33744534285

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