Title
Use Of Family Of Models For Performance Predictions And Decision Making
Keywords
FEM; Load rating; Movable bridge; Prediction; Reliability; SHM; Structural identification; Uncertainty
Abstract
The issue about performance prediction is the need of a well representative model which can be analytical or mathematical due to non-availability of the future data. Analytical or mathematical models can be identified with the help of current data coming from structural health monitoring (SHM) systems and these models can be used for future performance predictions by incorporating uncertainties coming from modeling and monitoring data. In this study, a well calibrated finite element model (FEM) of a real life structure, which is accepted as the parent model of the family models, is introduced. Based on this model, offspring models, which include the modeling and measurement uncertainties are generated. In the offspring generation process uncertainties such as boundary conditions, loads, geometric and mechanical properties of the elements are defined with distributions. After the generation process, offspring models are analyzed and set of results are obtained for a family of models. These results are used for structural reliability calculations in the performance prediction part of the paper. At this point, the other important considerations such as system model definition and correlation of the components for the system reliability approach are also taken into account. Finally, future performances in the case of instantaneous or continuous structural changes are considered for structural system reliability prediction, which is critical for decision making about future performance of the structure, by incorporating uncertainties from measurement through modeling on the movable bridge. © The Society for Experimental Mechanics, Inc. 2012.
Publication Date
6-6-2012
Publication Title
Conference Proceedings of the Society for Experimental Mechanics Series
Volume
1
Number of Pages
423-431
Document Type
Article; Proceedings Paper
Personal Identifier
scopus
DOI Link
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-2413-0_42
Copyright Status
Unknown
Socpus ID
84861726148 (Scopus)
Source API URL
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/84861726148
STARS Citation
Gokce, H. Burak; Catbas, F. Necati; and Frangopol, Dan M., "Use Of Family Of Models For Performance Predictions And Decision Making" (2012). Scopus Export 2010-2014. 4222.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/scopus2010/4222