Title

Stochastic Fuzzy Assessment For Managing Hydro-Environmental Systems Under Uncertainty And Ambiguity

Abstract

This paper develops a stochastic fuzzy decision making method to solve a class of decision making problems which involve simultaneous uncertainty and ambiguity when screening water resources management alternatives. In these analyses, not only the performance value with respect to a specific criterion in a given alternative is uncertain, but also the performance implications of the given alternative may be vague with respect to the considered criterion by the decision maker. The integration between Monte-Carlo simulation and fuzzy decision making may provide a unique soft computing technique linking randomness and fuzziness together. Whereas the stochastic problem is mapped into a deterministic environment through the use of a Monte-Carlo simulation process, fuzzy decision making helps entail the linguistic uncertainty (i.e., ambiguity) in decision science. With this framework, the overall performance of a wealth of alternatives can be further evaluated, resulting in considerable reduction in the uncertainty and ambiguity in the decision making arena. Practical implementation has been assessed by a case study of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California in which the performance of four water export alternatives were evaluated to determine the satisfactory solution with respect to the environmental sustainability and cost-effectiveness criteria. © 2012 ASCE.

Publication Date

9-17-2012

Publication Title

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012: Crossing Boundaries, Proceedings of the 2012 Congress

Number of Pages

2413-2421

Document Type

Article; Proceedings Paper

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784412312.244

Socpus ID

84866111144 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/84866111144

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