Title

Feasibility Of Incorporating Reliability Analysis In Traffic Safety Investigation

Abstract

The feasibility of using reliability analysis methods in traffic safety analyses is investigated. The reliability analysis approach, frequently used to evaluate the probability of failure of a specific structural system, has two main outcomes: the reliability index and the design points. Two approaches to using these two outcomes in traffic safety analyses are presented. Data from a mountainous freeway in Colorado are used. The reliability index is used to evaluate the hazardous freeway segments by incorporating the traffic flow parameters provided by radar detectors. The design points are employed to evaluate real-time crash occurrence risk at the disaggregate level with weather parameters. Finally, results of the reliability analysis approach are compared with the results of traditional methods. The reliability analysis method shows promising application in traffic safety studies. With the use of the reliability indexes, the three most hazardous freeway segments are identified. Moreover, with the design points, the accuracy rate of predicting crash occurrence is improved by 10.53% as compared with the logistic regression method.

Publication Date

12-1-2013

Publication Title

Transportation Research Record

Issue

2386

Number of Pages

35-41

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.3141/2386-05

Socpus ID

84897136175 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/84897136175

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