Title

Economic Policy And The Presidential Election Cycle In Stock Returns

Keywords

Economic Policy; Election Cycle; President; Stock Returns; Tax Legislation

Abstract

Many papers in the academic literature have documented a "Presidential Election" cycle in stock returns. Prior literature also documents that stock returns appear to be influenced by economic policy. The goal of this study is to examine the tools of fiscal and monetary policy to test for the presence of a presidential election cycle. The findings strongly suggest that the presidential election cycle in stock returns and the government's economic policy influence on stock returns are two separate phenomena. Moreover, it is much more likely that stock returns are influencing economic policy rather than the other way around. However, the findings also suggest that tax legislation may drive the Presidential Election Cycle. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Publication Date

4-1-2013

Publication Title

Journal of Economics and Finance

Volume

37

Issue

2

Number of Pages

200-215

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-011-9179-6

Socpus ID

84874800866 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/84874800866

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