The tale of uncertain choices: inclusion versus exclusion

Keywords

exclusion; inclusion; Screening; uncertainty

Abstract

This article investigates the effect of perceived uncertainty on two types of screening strategies–exclusion and inclusion. Results from five studies showed that perceived uncertainty increases the preference for exclusion strategy. Using both mediation and moderation methods, we find support for accuracy consideration as the driver underlying the effect of perceived uncertainty on screening strategy. Furthermore, we demonstrated a reversal of the relationship between perceived uncertainty and screening strategy by manipulating the consideration set size. While perceived uncertainty strengthened the preference for the exclusion strategy when forming smaller consideration sets, this relationship flipped when forming larger consideration sets. We also demonstrated the effects of perceived preference uncertainty on screening strategy over and above knowledge uncertainty, choice uncertainty, as well as dispositional attitude toward uncertainty. Finally, we demonstrated the generalisability of our results by analysing verbal protocol data from the TV game show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?.

Publication Date

10-2-2019

Publication Title

Thinking and Reasoning

Volume

25

Issue

4

Number of Pages

449-476

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2018.1526710

Socpus ID

85057342683 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85057342683

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