The Climate Change-Road Safety-Economy Nexus: A System Dynamics Approach To Understanding Complex Interdependencies

Keywords

Climate change; Policy analysis; Policy analysis; Road safety; System dynamics

Abstract

Road accidents have the highest externality costs to society and to the economy, even when compared to the externality damages associated with air emissions and oil dependency. Road safety is one of the most complicated topics, which involves many interdependencies, and so, a sufficiently thorough analysis of roadway safety will require a novel system-based approach in which the associated feedback relationships and causal effects are given appropriate consideration. The factors affecting accident frequency and severity are highly dependent on economic parameters, environmental factors and weather conditions. In this study, we try to use a system dynamics modeling approach to model the climate change-road safety-economy nexus, thereby investigating the complex interactions among these important areas by tracking how they affect each other over time. For this purpose, five sub-models are developed to model each aspect of the overall nexus and to interact with each other to simulate the overall system. As a result, this comprehensive model can provide a platform for policy makers to test the effectiveness of different policy scenarios to reduce the negative consequences of traffic accidents and improve road safety.

Publication Date

3-1-2017

Publication Title

Systems

Volume

5

Issue

1

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.3390/systems5010006

Socpus ID

85019167037 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85019167037

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