Time Series Trends Of The Safety Effects Of Pavement Resurfacing

Keywords

Crash modification factors and functions; Nonlinear models; Pavement resurfacing; Safety effects; Time series models

Abstract

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time.

Publication Date

4-1-2017

Publication Title

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volume

101

Number of Pages

78-86

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.02.006

Socpus ID

85012048716 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85012048716

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