Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks And Dynamic Adjustments In Birth Rates
Keywords
Birth rates; Birth seasonality; Fertility; Temperature
Abstract
We estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. We find that days with a mean temperature above 80°F cause a large decline in birth rates 8 to 10 months later. Unlike prior studies, we demonstrate that the initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months, implying that populations mitigate some of the fertility cost by shifting conception month. This shift helps explain the observed peak in late-summer births in the United States. We also present new evidence that hot weather most likely harms fertility via reproductive health as opposed to sexual activity. Historical evidence suggests that air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of high temperatures.
Publication Date
8-1-2018
Publication Title
Demography
Volume
55
Issue
4
Number of Pages
1269-1293
Document Type
Article
Personal Identifier
scopus
DOI Link
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0690-7
Copyright Status
Unknown
Socpus ID
85049592831 (Scopus)
Source API URL
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85049592831
STARS Citation
Barreca, Alan; Deschenes, Olivier; and Guldi, Melanie, "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks And Dynamic Adjustments In Birth Rates" (2018). Scopus Export 2015-2019. 8620.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/scopus2015/8620