Even Generals Need Friends: How Domestic And International Reactions To Coups Influence Regime Survival

Keywords

democratization; economic sanctions; international organization; political survival

Abstract

Signals from domestic and international actors have been shown to influence the likelihood of coups. Coups remain difficult to predict and consequently leave policy makers in a reactive stance, but little systematic work assesses how these reactions influence long-term outcomes. We examine how reactions from domestic and international actors influence the duration of coup-born regimes, arguing that negative reactions will shorten leadership duration. We further probe these relationships by considering how signaling consistency, Cold War dynamics, and precoup relationships condition the influence of reactions on leadership duration. Tests use events data to capture domestic and international reactions and newly coded information on leadership to capture leader duration. Results indicate that international responses have a profound influence on leadership tenure, especially those from strong actors. We find tentative support that state reactions have the strongest effect during the Cold War, while international organizations matter the most afterward.

Publication Date

8-1-2018

Publication Title

Journal of Conflict Resolution

Volume

62

Issue

7

Number of Pages

1406-1432

Document Type

Article

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716685611

Socpus ID

85042220386 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85042220386

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