A Cross-Repository Model For Predicting Popularity In Github

Keywords

LSTM; Popularity; Social network analysis

Abstract

Social coding platforms, such as GitHub, can serve as natural laboratories for studying the diffusion of innovation through tracking the pattern of code adoption by programmers. This paper focuses on the problem of predicting the popularity of software repositories over time; our aim is to forecast the time series of popularity-related events (code forks and watches). In particular, we are interested in cross-repository patterns - how do events on one repository affect other repositories? Our proposed LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) recurrent neural network integrates events across multiple active repositories, outperforming a standard ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series prediction based on the single repository. The ability of the LSTM to leverage cross-repository information gives it a significant edge over standard time series forecasting.

Publication Date

12-1-2018

Publication Title

Proceedings - 2018 International Conference on Computational Science and Computational Intelligence, CSCI 2018

Number of Pages

1248-1253

Document Type

Article; Proceedings Paper

Personal Identifier

scopus

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.1109/CSCI46756.2018.00241

Socpus ID

85078518017 (Scopus)

Source API URL

https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85078518017

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