Crash severity models are typically developed using police reported injury severity databases. However, several research studies have identified various challenges associated with police reported data. Therefore, the current dissertation is focusing on developing high resolution crash severity models based on medical professional driver injury severity reported using Abbreviated Injury Scale for eight body regions. The dissertation focused on developing a disaggregate injury severity modeling framework that can enhance the estimation accuracy of independent variable impacts on severity. Within this broad research vision, the dissertation has multiple objectives. First, a joint random parameters multivariate model structure with as many dimensions as severity by body location was developed. The empirical analysis involves the estimation of Random Parameters Multivariate Generalized Ordered Probit Model that allows for the influence of common unobserved factors affecting the vehicle occupant severity across body locations. Second, we incorporate the influence of temporal factors (observed and unobserved) within a multivariate model system for medical professional generated body region specific injury severity score. For this purpose, we adopt a hybrid econometric modeling approach that accommodates for the unobserved factors. Third, the dissertation compares the predictive performance of the state-of-the-art econometric model with the predictive performance of state-of-the-art machine learning methods. We consider machine learning approaches such as Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Boosting, and Support Vector Machine. Finally, the dissertation applied two approaches. First, analyze dependent variables with an ordered logit framework using the six injury severity levels. The second approach is adopting a hurdle ordered logit framework by splitting the dependent variable into two stages: binary and truncated which exclude the zero cases. The model performance of these approaches are compared using the data of two body regions.
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Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)
College of Engineering and Computer Science
Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering
Length of Campus-only Access
Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access)
Kabli, Ahmed, "High Fidelity Injury Severity Analysis Using Econometric Modeling Approaches" (2022). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2020-. 1475.