Keywords

Traffic safety analysis, Roadway corridor, Network screening, Safety improvements, Safety performance function, Highway Safety Manual

Abstract

The standard method for assessing traffic safety is to use the predictive method outlined in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM). This method is site-level, data-intensive, and does not account for interactions between sites, making it difficult to assess larger areas. This dissertation develops a corridor-level approach to traffic safety which uses less data than the HSM predictive method and views roadways holistically rather than combinations of individual, independent sites. First, a corridor definition is developed and applied to 10 urban Florida counties with a history of many crashes, resulting in the identification of 1,048 corridors. These corridors were primarily defined using context classification and lane count, with additional considerations for data availability and minimum length. From 2017–2021, these corridors experienced 459,603 unique crashes. After preliminary modeling and scope refinement, 559 corridors received supplemental data collection. Between the two datasets, a total of 11 models were developed using either negative binomial (NB) or random forest (RF) regression. NB models can be used for network screening purposes or identifying the impacts of potential safety improvements, while RF models can be used to identify variables important to the accuracy of the prediction. Potential safety improvements identified from the NB models include increasing proactive law enforcement patrols for dangerous driving behaviors and installing corridor lighting in corridors without lighting. While both NB and RF models were accurate, NB models were recommended due to resulting in a definite equation and overdispersion parameter that could be used with the empirical Bayes (EB) method to improve prediction accuracy. Overall, the corridor-level NB models outperformed the HSM models in terms of accuracy and statistical reliability. Using a corridor-level approach can help agencies quickly network screen their systems to identify high-risk corridors in need of safety improvements or supplement site-level analyses.

Completion Date

2024

Semester

Spring

Committee Chair

Al-Deek, Haitham

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

College

College of Engineering and Computer Science

Department

Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering

Degree Program

Civil Engineering

Format

application/pdf

Identifier

DP0028296

URL

https://purls.library.ucf.edu/go/DP0028296

Language

English

Rights

In copyright

Release Date

May 2029

Length of Campus-only Access

5 years

Access Status

Doctoral Dissertation (Campus-only Access)

Campus Location

Orlando (Main) Campus

Accessibility Status

Meets minimum standards for ETDs/HUTs

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Restricted to the UCF community until May 2029; it will then be open access.

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