ORCID

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9721-4598

Keywords

risk communication, tropical cyclones, uncertainty, probability, IDEA model, hurricanes

Abstract

This body of research investigated methods for effectively communicating the inherent, technical uncertainty in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts through three separate studies. The first investigation uses Hurricane Laura as a case study. Laura rapidly intensified before making landfall in Cameron, Louisiana, catching some residents off guard. The study demonstrates how publics could be more effectively alerted to future hurricane worst-case scenarios using best practices recommended by the risk communication literature. The second study is an experiment that examines the effectiveness of adding numerical probability information to hurricane forecasts. Prior research suggests that using numeric probability information along with words and phrases is a best practice in risk communication. Using a survey of college students in a hurricane prone state, this study showed that numerical probabilities do improve comprehension of social media messages when properly presented. Finally, the third study analyzes prototypes specifically for the purpose of communicating the uncertainty in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. The National Hurricane Center recently developed prototype forecast graphics that include probabilistic values of intensity at landfall when landfall is possible. The goal of this final investigation was to develop those prototypes into a forecast product that expresses technical uncertainty in an intensity forecast in a manner that is understandable and effective. Based on combination of these investigations, recommendations are made for application of the findings to future tropical cyclone forecast products and continued research in the area of communicating uncertainty in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

Completion Date

2024

Semester

Fall

Committee Chair

Brown, Timothy

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

College

College of Sciences

Department

Nicholson School of Communication and Media

Format

PDF

Identifier

DP0029698

Document Type

Thesis

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