Title
Applying Computer-Simulation To Forecast Homicide Rates
Abbreviated Journal Title
J. Crim. Justice
Keywords
Crime; Subculture; Inequality; Violence; Suicide; Poverty; Criminology & Penology
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to expose readers to a relatively new and virtually unused analytical tool-computer simulation of dynamic social trends. For purposes of illustrating this technique, several variables assumed to contribute to homicide rates were examined. Prior research has pointed to structural explanations for homicide. Specifically, ''anomie'' and a ''subculture of violence'' have repeatedly been found to be correlated with homicide rates. However, neither adequately explains the inordinately high number of homicides in the United States. Therefore, an alternative explanation, focusing on the interactive and reciprocal nature of these two constructs, is considered in this article. Through the use of simulation technology, a computer model was built that tested the ability of these constructs and the associated variables to predict homicide rates. Findings indicated that simultaneously increasing several variables (e.g., population density, availability of handguns, etc.) produced a sharp rise in the number of homicides. However, after a period of several years, societal responses (such as enhanced social programs and improved rehabilitative efforts) resulted in homicide rates stabilizing at a level only slightly greater than that recorded prior to the changes.
Journal Title
Journal of Criminal Justice
Volume
21
Issue/Number
5
Publication Date
1-1-1993
Document Type
Article
Language
English
First Page
467
Last Page
479
WOS Identifier
ISSN
0047-2352
Recommended Citation
"Applying Computer-Simulation To Forecast Homicide Rates" (1993). Faculty Bibliography 1990s. 820.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/facultybib1990/820
Comments
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