Applying Computer-Simulation To Forecast Homicide Rates

    Authors

    M. M. Lanier;D. L. Carter

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    J. Crim. Justice

    Keywords

    Crime; Subculture; Inequality; Violence; Suicide; Poverty; Criminology & Penology

    Abstract

    The purpose of this article is to expose readers to a relatively new and virtually unused analytical tool-computer simulation of dynamic social trends. For purposes of illustrating this technique, several variables assumed to contribute to homicide rates were examined. Prior research has pointed to structural explanations for homicide. Specifically, ''anomie'' and a ''subculture of violence'' have repeatedly been found to be correlated with homicide rates. However, neither adequately explains the inordinately high number of homicides in the United States. Therefore, an alternative explanation, focusing on the interactive and reciprocal nature of these two constructs, is considered in this article. Through the use of simulation technology, a computer model was built that tested the ability of these constructs and the associated variables to predict homicide rates. Findings indicated that simultaneously increasing several variables (e.g., population density, availability of handguns, etc.) produced a sharp rise in the number of homicides. However, after a period of several years, societal responses (such as enhanced social programs and improved rehabilitative efforts) resulted in homicide rates stabilizing at a level only slightly greater than that recorded prior to the changes.

    Journal Title

    Journal of Criminal Justice

    Volume

    21

    Issue/Number

    5

    Publication Date

    1-1-1993

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    467

    Last Page

    479

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:A1993MJ30300003

    ISSN

    0047-2352

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