Title

Modeling traffic accident occurrence and involvement

Authors

Authors

M. A. Abdel-Aty;A. E. Radwan

Comments

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Abbreviated Journal Title

Accid. Anal. Prev.

Keywords

accident occurrence; accident involvement; negative binomial models; roadway geometric characteristics; driver characteristics; traffic; safety; Ergonomics; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Social; Sciences, Interdisciplinary; Transportation

Abstract

The Negative Binomial modeling technique was used to model the frequency of accident occurrence and involvement. Accident data over a period of 3 years, accounting for 1606; accidents on a principal arterial in Central Florida, were used to estimate the model. The model illustrated the significance of the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), degree of horizontal curvature, lane, shoulder and median widths, urban/rural, and the section's length, on the frequency of accident occurrence. Several Negative Binomial models of the frequency of accident involvement were also developed to account for the demographic characteristics of the driver (age and gender). The results showed that heavy traffic volume, speeding, narrow lane width, larger number of lanes, urban roadway sections, narrow shoulder width and reduced median width increase the likelihood for accident involvement. Subsequent elasticity computations identified the relative importance of tb variables included in the models. Female drivers experience more accidents than male drivers in heavy traffic volume, reduced median width, narrow lane width, and larger number of lanes. Male drivers have greater tendency to be involved in traffic accidents while speeding. The models also indicated that young and older drivers experience more accidents than middle aged drivers in heavy traffic volume, and reduced shoulder and median widths. Younger drivers have a greater tendency of being involved in accidents on roadway curves and while speeding. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal Title

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volume

32

Issue/Number

5

Publication Date

1-1-2000

Document Type

Article

Language

English

First Page

633

Last Page

642

WOS Identifier

WOS:000088077900003

ISSN

0001-4575

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