Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida

    Authors

    D. B. Wang; S. C. Hagen;K. Alizad

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    J. Hydrol.

    Keywords

    Climate change; Rainfall IDF; NARCCAP; Regional climate model; Apalachicola River basin; EASTERN UNITED-STATES; REGIONAL CLIMATE; FUTURE CHANGES; MODEL; INTEGRATIONS; WATER-RESOURCES; SOUTH FLORIDA; SEA-LEVEL; PRECIPITATION; FREQUENCY; INTENSITY; Engineering, Civil; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Water Resources

    Abstract

    Climate change impact on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves at the Apalachicola River basin (Florida Panhandle coast) is assessed using an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. The suitability of seven RCMs on simulating temporal variation of rainfall at the fine-scale is assessed for the case study region. Two RCMs, HRM3-HADCM3 and RCM3-GFDL, are found to have good skill scores in generating high intensity events at the mid-afternoon (2:00-4:00 PM). These two RCMs are selected for assessing potential climate change impact on IDF curves. Two methods are used to conduct bias correction on future rainfall IDF curves, i.e., maximum intensity percentile-based method, and sequential bias correction and maximum intensity percentile-based method. Based on the projection by HRM3-HADCM3, there is no significant change in rainfall intensity at the upstream and middle stream stations but higher intensity at the downstream station. RCM3-GFDL projected increased rainfall intensity from upstream to downstream, particularly at the downstream. The potential temporal shift of extreme rainfall events coupled with overall increased intensities may exacerbate flood magnitudes and lead to increased sediment and nutrient loadings to the estuary, especially in light of sea level change. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    Journal Title

    Journal of Hydrology

    Volume

    480

    Publication Date

    1-1-2013

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    125

    Last Page

    135

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000315008300011

    ISSN

    0022-1694

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