Title

Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River Basin

Authors

Authors

A. Gohari; S. Eslamian; J. Abedi-Koupaei; A. M. Bavani; D. B. Wang;K. Madani

Comments

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Abbreviated Journal Title

Sci. Total Environ.

Keywords

Climate change; Agriculture; Crop production; Water resources; management; Zayandeh-Rud; Iran; SOIL-EROSION; WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY; CHANGE SCENARIOS; MAIZE PRODUCTION; MODEL; CHINA; UNCERTAINTY; VARIABILITY; CIRCULATION; CALIFORNIA; Environmental Sciences

Abstract

This study evaluates climate change impacts on crop production and water productivity of four major crops (wheat, barley, rice, and corn) in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Multi-model ensemble scenarios are used to deal with uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). On average, monthly temperature will increase by 1.1 to 1.5 degrees C under climate change. Monthly precipitation changes may be positive or negative in different months of the year. Nevertheless, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 11 to 31% with climate change. While warming can potentially shorten the crop growth period, crop production and water productivity of all crops are expected to decrease due to lower precipitation and higher water requirements under higher temperature. Out of the four studied crops, rice and corn are more vulnerable to climate change due to their high irrigation water demand. So, their continued production can be compromised under climate change. This finding is of particular importance, given the locally high economic and food value of these crops in central Iran. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal Title

Science of the Total Environment

Volume

442

Publication Date

1-1-2013

Document Type

Article

Language

English

First Page

405

Last Page

419

WOS Identifier

WOS:000313918200046

ISSN

0048-9697

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