Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River Basin

    Authors

    A. Gohari; S. Eslamian; J. Abedi-Koupaei; A. M. Bavani; D. B. Wang;K. Madani

    Comments

    Authors: contact us about adding a copy of your work at [email protected]

    Abbreviated Journal Title

    Sci. Total Environ.

    Keywords

    Climate change; Agriculture; Crop production; Water resources; management; Zayandeh-Rud; Iran; SOIL-EROSION; WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY; CHANGE SCENARIOS; MAIZE PRODUCTION; MODEL; CHINA; UNCERTAINTY; VARIABILITY; CIRCULATION; CALIFORNIA; Environmental Sciences

    Abstract

    This study evaluates climate change impacts on crop production and water productivity of four major crops (wheat, barley, rice, and corn) in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Multi-model ensemble scenarios are used to deal with uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). On average, monthly temperature will increase by 1.1 to 1.5 degrees C under climate change. Monthly precipitation changes may be positive or negative in different months of the year. Nevertheless, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 11 to 31% with climate change. While warming can potentially shorten the crop growth period, crop production and water productivity of all crops are expected to decrease due to lower precipitation and higher water requirements under higher temperature. Out of the four studied crops, rice and corn are more vulnerable to climate change due to their high irrigation water demand. So, their continued production can be compromised under climate change. This finding is of particular importance, given the locally high economic and food value of these crops in central Iran. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    Journal Title

    Science of the Total Environment

    Volume

    442

    Publication Date

    1-1-2013

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    405

    Last Page

    419

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000313918200046

    ISSN

    0048-9697

    Share

    COinS
     

    Accessibility Statement

    This item was created or digitized prior to April 24, 2027, or is a reproduction of legacy media created before that date. It is preserved in its original, unmodified state specifically for research, reference, or historical recordkeeping. In accordance with the ADA Title II Final Rule, the University Libraries provides accessible versions of archival materials upon request. To request an accommodation for this item, please submit an accessibility request form.