Modeling the Dynamics of Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Cessation

    Authors

    K. M. Thompson;R. J. D. Tebbens

    Comments

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    Abbreviated Journal Title

    J. Infect. Dis.

    Keywords

    polio eradication; dynamic modeling; disease outbreaks; oral poliovirus; vaccine; POLICY OPTIONS; ERADICATION; TRANSMISSION; IMMUNITY; RISKS; DISEASE; Immunology; Infectious Diseases; Microbiology

    Abstract

    Background. Oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) results in an ongoing burden of poliomyelitis due to vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs). This motivates globally coordinated OPV cessation after wild poliovirus eradication. Methods.aEuro integral We modeled poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution to characterize the interaction between population immunity, OPV-related virus prevalence, and the emergence of cVDPVs after OPV cessation. We explored strategies to prevent and manage cVDPVs for countries that currently use OPV for immunization and characterized cVDPV emergence risks and OPV use for outbreak response. Results.aEuro integral Continued intense supplemental immunization activities until OPV cessation represent the best strategy to prevent cVDPV emergence after OPV cessation in areas with insufficient routine immunization coverage. Policy makers must actively manage population immunity before OPV cessation to prevent cVDPVs and aggressively respond if prevention fails. Sufficiently aggressive response with OPV to interrupt transmission of the cVDPV outbreak virus will lead to die-out of OPV-related viruses used for response in the outbreak population. Further analyses should consider the risk of exportation to other populations of the outbreak virus and any OPV used for outbreak response. Conclusions.aEuro integral OPV cessation can successfully eliminate all circulating live polioviruses in a population. The polio end game requires active risk management.

    Journal Title

    Journal of Infectious Diseases

    Volume

    210

    Publication Date

    1-1-2014

    Document Type

    Article

    Language

    English

    First Page

    S475

    Last Page

    S484

    WOS Identifier

    WOS:000344612400057

    ISSN

    0022-1899

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