The effectiveness of monetary policy moving forward from the subprime mortgage crisis has come into question by academics and economists from around the world. The unconventional monetary policy tools implemented have left central banks in a tough spot in terms of an exit from these policies in an environment where economic growth and inflation targets still have not been reached ten years after the onset of the recession. One of the main criticisms by economists is the prolonged easy monetary policy implemented by central banks, which have left interest rates at near zero levels since the recession and are just now beginning to cautiously consider raising rates. In this paper, I examined the relationship between GDP growth and economic variables that could possibly affect it, including interest rates, unemployment, labor force participation rates, shadow interest rates, stock market performance, and bond market performance. I studied the relationship by running regressions on time series data collected from the economies and central banks of the United States, European Union, and Japan. I found no statistically significant relationship between interest rates and GDP growth as well as positive values for the interest rate coefficients for two out of three of my regressions. However, I did conclude that the unemployment rate, and bond market performance did have a positive relationship with GDP growth in Europe and Japan. This warrants further study and usage of policy tools that affect these variables to lessen the severity of future recessions and have a positive effect on economic growth.
Bachelor Science in Business Administration (B.S.B.A.)
College of Business Administration
Orlando (Main) Campus
Araujo, Tomas, "Does Lowering the Interest Rate Stimulate Economic Growth? An Analysis of Current Macroeconomic Policy" (2017). Honors Undergraduate Theses. 206.
Restricted to the UCF community until May 2017; it will then be open access.