Abstract

This paper explores the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries through the lens of Marty Cohen's The Party Decides model. The model utilizes five key indicators in helping to predict who the party will decide as the nominee: widespread voter approval, key endorsements, fundraising, media coverage, and success in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. While the model has been an indicator for almost 50 years, two of the five recent primaries have shown that the candidates are the exception to the rule. This paper will either prove whether or not the exception becomes the rule, if the rule is no longer reliable, or if the model will hold true. In analyzing the top five candidates throughout the invisible primary and 10 key primaries and caucuses, this paper will determine the model's reliability.

Thesis Completion

2020

Semester

Spring

Thesis Chair

Knuckey, Jonathan

Co-Chair

Ilderton, Nathan

Degree

Bachelor of Arts (B.A.)

College

College of Sciences

Department

Political Science

Degree Program

Political Science

Language

English

Access Status

Open Access

Release Date

5-1-2020

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