An impact evaluation of u.s. arms export controls on the u.s. defense industrial base an interrupted time-series analysis

Author

Aaron Condron, University of Central Florida

Abstract

The United States Defense Industrial Base (USDIB) is an essential industry to both the economic prosperity of the US and its strategic control over many advanced military systems and technologies. The USDIB, which encompasses the industries of aerospace and defense, is a volatile industry - prone to many internal and external factors that cause demand to ebb and flow widely year over year. Among the factors that influence the volume of systems the USDIB delivers to its international customers are the arms export controls of the US. These controls impose a divergence from the historical US foreign policy of furthering an open exchange of ideas and liberalized trade. These controls, imposed by the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and State rigidly control all international presence of the Industry. The overlapping controls create an inability to conform to rapidly changing realpolitiks, leaving these controls in an archaic state. This, in turn, imposes a great deal of anxiety and expense upon managers within and outside of the USDIB. Using autoregressive integrated moving average time-series analyses, this paper confirms that the implementation of or amendment to broad arms export controls correlates to significant and near immediate declines in USDIB export volumes. In the context of the US's share of world arms exports, these controls impose up to a 20% decline in export volume.

Notes

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Thesis Completion

2011

Semester

Summer

Advisor

Sweo, Robert

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Business Administration (B.S.B.A.)

College

College of Business Administration

Degree Program

Finance

Subjects

Business Administration -- Dissertations, Academic;Dissertations, Academic -- Business Administration

Format

PDF

Identifier

CFH0004064

Language

English

Access Status

Open Access

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Document Type

Honors in the Major Thesis

Recommended Citation

Condron, Aaron, "An impact evaluation of u.s. arms export controls on the u.s. defense industrial base an interrupted time-series analysis" (2011). HIM 1990-2015. 1196.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/honorstheses1990-2015/1196