Keywords
Forecasting, Mathematical models, Inventory control, Medical supplies
Abstract
A computer simulation experiment was conducted to evaluate and compare five individual forecasting models across nine different demand patterns. The models were based on the Medical Materiel Management System used by the US Air Force hospitals. Results indicated the best model varied depending on the demand pattern, the safety stock level, the noise level of the demand pattern, and the measure of forecast error. Across all demand patterns, exponential smoothing and 12-month moving average were best for the short term forecast used by the system, regardless of noise level in the demand patterns. Analysis of models within a single demand pattern showed, in most cases, several models as ranking equally well. When overall system requirements were considered, the exponential smoothing method was by far the best choice.
Notes
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Graduation Date
1976
Advisor
Lin, Benjamin W.
Degree
Master of Science (M.S.)
College
College of Engineering
Degree Program
Engineering
Format
Pages
64 p.
Language
English
Rights
Public Domain
Length of Campus-only Access
None
Access Status
Masters Thesis (Open Access)
Identifier
DP0012771
Subjects
Forecasting -- Mathematical models, Inventory control -- Mathematical models, Medical supplies -- Inventory control
STARS Citation
Van Ess, Phillip John, "A Comparative Study of Forecasting Techniques for the US Air Force Medical Material Management System" (1976). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 265.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/rtd/265
Contributor (Linked data)
University of Central Florida. College of Engineering [VIAF]
Collection (Linked data)
Accessibility Status
Searchable text