Analysis of the Beta Distribution Assumption in the Pert Algorithm
Abstract
In order to validate the assumption of beta distributed activity durations in the PERT algorithm, a study has been performed using three typical distributions: uniform, normal, and exponential. Random data were generated according to each of the three distributions to represent activity durations in three textbook example networks. The chosen networks had significant interaction between activities and numerous possible critical paths. PERT analyses were performed using two methods: (1) the true duration means and variances for each activity were used, and (2) the means and variances used were calculated assuming that the durations followed a beta distribution. The results of the two methods were compared to determine the similarity between the critical paths, the expected project durations, the project duration variances, and the durations required to give 95% probability that a project would be completed on schedule. The study was performed assuming that every activity in the network followed the same distribution. The results showed that there were variations in all areas analyzed. The average difference at the 95% confidence level was 8.75% for the uniform distribution, 3.62% for the normal distribution, and 16.12% for the exponential distribution.
Notes
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Graduation Date
1990
Semester
Fall
Advisor
Hosni, Yasser A.
Degree
Master of Science (M.S.)
College
College of Engineering
Department
Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Format
Pages
86 p.
Language
English
Length of Campus-only Access
None
Access Status
Masters Thesis (Open Access)
Identifier
DP0027249
Subjects
Dissertations, Academic -- Engineering; Engineering -- Dissertations, Academic
STARS Citation
Cooke, Elizabeth C., "Analysis of the Beta Distribution Assumption in the Pert Algorithm" (1990). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 3965.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/rtd/3965
Accessibility Status
Searchable text